Cruising during hurricane season in the Caribbean is usually cheaper than other times of the year, but news reports are stating that a triple-dip La Niña could make it a rough ride.
Speaking as a U.S. Navy veteran, I can tell you I’ve sailed through 50 mph winds and 40 foot seas. Granted, my frigate was a fraction of the size of today’s cruise ships, but it was very bumpy sailing in the Caribbean.
News4Jax.com is reporting, “La Niña is happening and this is bad news heading into hurricane season.
Look at how the colder than normal Pacific ocean temperatures made for busy seasons the past two years. Last season ended with 21 named storms, notching the third most active year in history. The 2020 hurricane season had 30 named storms, the most in recorded history.
What do they have in common? Both occurred during two consecutive La Niña years. What’s uncommon? Having three consecutive La Niña events. A third-year La Niña has only occurred twice since 1950.
A “three-peat” is remarkable and it appears it will linger. NOAA’s latest La Niña advisory increases the odds of La Nina from 51% to 58% by the peak of the most dangerous part of hurricane season in August through October.
Two names, both bring very different outcomes
El Niño the warm water counterpart in the Pacific, typically reduces Atlantic hurricanes by casting hostile upper-level winds over areas where storms develop in the Atlantic. In contrast, La Niña weakens the winds promoting storm development.
The same conditions that make storm formation so favorable are falling into place again this season.
Seasonal hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University predict an active season with 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes & 4 major hurricanes. Lead forecaster, Philip Klotzbach, cites a lack of El Niño and warmer than normal subtropical Atlantic for the above-average forecast.”
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